LATEST NEWS: What It Feels Like For A Girl11 JULY 2001I have more info on WIFL's chart run on the Club Play chart. Its run through the July 7 issue is: 38-25-9-2-2-1-3-7-13-23-39. It's possible that WIFL spent another week on the chart (DTM fell 41-50 in its final week), but it's likely that WIFL's has ended its Club Play run at 11 weeks, matching the runs of both "Beautiful Stranger" and "American Pie," but falling short of all the club singles released from both "Ray of Light" and "Music." Also a correction -- "Hanky Panky" did not spend 11 weeks on the Hot 100, but matches WIFL's 10 week run. Also, WIFL re-entered the top 75 on the UK singles chart, pushing its total weeks to 10, matching DTM's chart longevity. 29 JUNE 2001WIFL is more of a fighter than I thought it would be, as it barely ekes out a tenth week on the Hot 100 at #97. With the expectation that it will fall off the Hot 100 next week, this means that WIFL has spent 10 weeks on the Hot 100. By comparison, here are Madonna's other short-lived singles and their peaks on the Hot 100: Nothing Really Matters - #93 (2 weeks) WIFL has also concluded its run on the UK charts after 9 weeks, which is on par with most of her non-top 5 hits, matching the longevity of both "The Power of Good-Bye" and "Nothing Really Matters." Also of note is that WIFL did debut on the Adult Contemporary chart a few weeks ago, and has thus far peaked at #27 -- this is Madonna's only single from the "Music" project to crack that chart. One area of interest that I have been lax in following the past couple weeks is WIFL's performance on Club Play. It spent one week at #1 on that chart awhile back, and its trajectory thus far has been: 38-25-9-2-2-1-3-7-13 through the 6/23/01 chart. It is likely still on the Club Play chart, but I don't know where. If WIFL spends 13 weeks on the Club Play chart, it will be her third consecutive single to do so -- this is significant because ever since the Club Play chart was condensed from 80 to 50 tracks in the early '80s, only three other pre-"Music" Madonna singles have racked up more than 12 weeks on the chart (Justify My Love, Bedtime Story, and Ray of Light). As for what Madonna's next single will be, it still appears as though we will have to wait until September when Madonna begins promoting her second greatest hits collection. Unfortunately we leave the "Music" project on the sour note left by WIFL's relative lack of success. If there is indeed no fourth single from "Music," this will be the first time in Madonna's career that she has released only three singles from a new studio album. 22 JUNE 2001WIFL manages a ninth week on the Hot 100 this week, falling to #83. Sales have remained relatively steady despite the song's absence from the airplay chart. WIFL remains in the sales top 20 moving 19-18 this week. I do not know the current sales tally for WIFL but I estimate it to be around 60,000 - 65,000 copies -- I do know that roughly 20,000 of that is DVD sales. Madonna's lowest selling single of her career is "Love Don't Live Here Anymore" which sold 73,000 copies in 1996, which means that WIFL will likely land as her second lowest selling single when its run is over. I don't think WIFL will be able to reach 100,000 copies. As for any upcoming singles, it appears that after a limited issuing of "Amazing" promos in some countries, that the single has now been pulled from release anywhere. Unfortunately, it now looks quite possible that there will be no more singles from "Music." Whatever the (first) single will be from her upcoming hits collection, it likely will not be promoted until September. 14 JUNE 2001WIFL apparently has had its feet planted in cement and was then tossed off a pier, because the song is falling so fast, drowning 43-67 this week. It has now spent eight week on the Hot 100 and will be lucky to spend another on the chart. Airplay has likely fallen off of the top 75 and sales slip 17-19. There's not much else to say. It seems POG is Madonna's only recent third single to do at least moderately well on the charts, as WIFL's longevity has been more along the lines of relative flops like Bedtime Story and Bad Girl -- both third singles from their respective albums. With a little more perspective, I have also reset the scores for WIFL in the rating box above. Vote again and it'll be interesting to see how opinions have changed now that WIFL is done with. 9 JUNE 2001WIFL's airplay is tumbling dramatically -- it falls a disappointing 45-60 this wek and may not last another week on the airplay chart. If that's the case, its 7-week run on the airplay chart will be Madonna's shortest since "Bedtime Story" managed a single week back in 1995 (of course, between then and now both LDLHA and NRM missed the airplay chart entirely). Sales are more stable, sliding 16-17. Next week I would guess that WIFL will fall into the 60s on the Hot 100. And although I said I wasn't very optimistic about "Amazing," I should reserve judgment until I learn what WB's promotional efforts will be. Let's wait and see what happens. 7 JUNE 2001I don't have much information about WIFL yet, but it falls 31-43 on the Hot 100 in its seventh week. By comparison, American Pie fell 32-40 in its seventh week. WIFL may have to struggle to reach 10 weeks. On the Club Play chart, WIFL slides 3-7 in its eighth week, and will probably rack up 11-12 weeks on that chart, which puts it on par with most of her dance hits. Also, it does appear that "Amazing" will be released worldwide in July -- that's including the United States. I don't know how well the song will do, but considering that it will be her second song in a row without video rotation in the US I am not optimistic. 31 MAY 2001If you didn't believe it last week, you better believe it now. WIFL has peaked at #23 and is heading quickly down the charts, descending 23-31 in only its sixth week. Both sales and airplay see significant losses, falling 12-16 and 37-45 respectively. WIFL will probably end up being one of Madonna's most short-lived singles. It has easily exceeded Nothing Really Matters' measly two weeks on the Hot 100, and will most likely surpass the 7-week run of "Bedtime Story" as well as the 8-week runs of both "Love Don't Live Here Anymore" and "Rescue Me." Its performance, in terms of longevity, is actually most similar to "American Pie" at this point. American Pie rose to its peak position in only its third week (#29) and was unbullted by its fifth week, just like WIFL. In its sixth week, AP was at #32 -- just one position below WIFL's current ranking. After that, AP fell 32-40-58-88-off and spent only nine weeks on the chart. WIFL might be able to surpass this nine week run as it has the added benefit of sales, which tend to slow the descent of most singles. If it reaches 11 weeks, it will tie with "Hanky Panky" and "Bad Girl." In terms of peak positions, however, WIFL is remarkably close to "The Power of Goodbye" in several areas. For both singles, the major sales debut coincided with its third week on the airplay chart -- and somewhat astoundingly, the Hot 100 position that week was virtually identical -- POG hit #24 that week while WIFL hit #23. As we all know, POG went on to do much better on the Hot 100 than WIFL has (POG reached #11), however, if POG were subject to the more competitive Hot 100 of today it would have likely performed similar to WIFL or perhaps even peaked slightly lower. Note that if airplay-only tracks were not allowed to chart, WIFL would have peaked between #15-10. WIFL and POG both have similar airplay audience peaks (WIFL has the edge in terms of millions of listeners, while POG has the edge in terms of chart position). They also both have similar sales peaks -- #9 and #13 respectively (conversely, POG actually sold more copies of its single). Even on the Top 40 Tracks and Top 40 Mainstream charts they share similar peaks (Tracks POG: 21, WIFL: 18, Mainstream POG: 18, WIFL: 14). But back to this week's charts. On the Club Play chart, WIFL cedes the #1 position to Depeche Mode after only one week, while the maxi-single stays put at #2. The only chart where WIFL actually shows growth is Adult Top 40, where it barely moves up 28-27*. Its possible it could reach the top 20 of that chart, but at this point I think it is unlikely. With the news that "Amazing" will be released in Europe in July, it's likely that it will also be released in the US at around the same time. Hopefully we won't have to wait as long for "Music"'s fourth single as we had to wait for ROL's fourth US single -- NRM came out seven months after POG did! I'm no longer going to predict positions for WIFL as the excitement is over. However, here was my track record. Despite being accused of being too pessimistic, my guesses were actually overestimates for the most part.
*amended guess after learning sales figures 29 MAY 2001Word on the street is that WIFL falls from the top of the Club Play chart, giving it only one week at the summit. This is probably true information. 24 MAY 2001When I predicted in early April that WIFL would peak at #17, I received numerous emails from people telling me I was way underestimating the single, the vast majority told me it would go top ten easily, others predicting even top 5 and #1 peaks. It turns out not only were those guesses far too high, even my own guess of #17 was too optimistic! WIFL spends a third week at its likely peak of #23, unbulleted as now both sales and airplay are falling, even though WIFL is only in its fifth week on the charts. Both take only minor dips, however, which is why WIFL didn't fall this week. Sales slide from 11,000 to 9,100 (falling 11-12 on the sales chart), while airplay drops 36-37. The only Madonna singles to have lower airplay peaks than WIFL's #36 peak are Bad Girl (#44), Bedtime Story (#68), Human Nature (#58), and both Love Don't Live Here Anymore and Nothing Really Matters (neither charted on airplay). To be fair, the Hot 100 Airplay chart has been much more competitive since 1998. Taking this into account, WIFL probably reached the same airplay levels as did Ray of Light and The Power of Good-Bye. This is also only Madonna's sixth commercially released single to miss the top 20 (the airplay-only track "American Pie" missed the top 20 as well). WIFL is clearly faring best on the dance charts, where it ascends 2-1* on Club Play and holds at #2 (unbulleted) on maxi-singles sales. The only other charts where WIFL shows any growth are the Top 40 Mainstream chart, where it jumps 17-14*, and Adult Top 40 where, despite falling 26-28*, it maintains a bullet. It may eventually break the top 20 on Adult Top 40, but even that is questionable. On Top 40 Tracks it is stable but unbulleted at #18. It's fair to say that WIFL is a disappointment, as after the major success of both Music and Don't Tell Me, I'm sure most of us expected a more impressive performance. But there are many factors for why WIFL has been unable to match their hit status. In addition to being a third single, which automatically puts it at a disadvantage, WIFL had the burden of its video, played only once on MTV and VH1. There was also the near-total absence of Madonna in the media for any sort of promotion for the single. Not only were there no live performances, there wasn't even an interview or appearance anywhere since the Grammy awards. Finally, I have to say, I simply think the song to be one of the weaker and less notable tracks on "Music." Many may disagree with me, but I find the song flat and unexciting, a massive step back from the incredibly invigorating energy found on Madonna's last two singles. There was simply nothing particularly special about this song (I will readily admit I loved several of the remixes, however). It remains to be seen if there will be a fourth US single from "Music," but here's to hoping that Madonna releases something fresh like "Impressive Instant," and does it quickly to coincide with her tour. Many fans and chart followers who are commercially-minded thought that WIFL's conservative nature would make it a hit, and think that Impressive Instant is too "out there." I couldn't disagree with them more, and think II has a much more likely chance of being a hit than WIFL ever did. As for next week, expect WIFL to fall several places. I foresee sales of roughly 7,500 copies and airplay at around #40. With both Faith Hill and 'N Sync flying up the charts, they will both leapfrog WIFL, and with WIFL's likely sales and airplay losses, a position of around #28 sounds reasonable. My guess of a #17 peak was six spots too high, but I have to say it was a much more accurate guess than what I've heard from many other sources.
*amended guess after learning sales figures Special thanks to hotshotjanetfan from Dotmusic for much of the above info! 23 MAY 2001WIFL sells 9,100 copies this week -- a far more reasonable drop than last week's plummet. This, coupled with an online source promising that "Madonna does us proud" on the charts this week suggests to me that WIFL managed to break the top 20 this week. I'll up my guess to #19. 21 MAY 2001I can't officially confirm this yet, but apparently WIFL ascends to the top of the Club Play chart this week, making it her 26th #1 hit on that chart! I suspect, however, that WIFL will only manage one week at the top since Spiller's "Groovejet" is most likely hot on its heels. 17 MAY 2001With full chart info in, it appears that WIFL had just enough airplay growth this week to offset its significant sales loss, allowing the single to remain bulleted at #23 (identical to my revised prediction). Both airplay and sales, however, were still below what I thought as airplay glides up only five spots (41-36*), while the sales drop from 17,000 to 11,000 copies pushed WIFL down two spots (9-11) on the sales chart. WIFL also relinquishes the top of the maxi-singles chart after only one week (falling 1-2), making room for Destiny's Child's mega-hit "Survivor." As long as airplay continues to grow, it will likely outweigh any sales losses, as at this point WIFL's sales are so low that even a major drop would only translate into a few chart points on the Hot 100. WIFL still has a strong shot at the top 20, although it is certainly not guaranteed. At this point, WIFL's airplay is still behind DTM, but not by too much, as DTM's airplay moved 34-29* in its fourth week. It is highly unlikely that WIFL will even get near DTM's airplay peak of #10, however. WIFL was not among the top 15 airplay gainers this week. On the individual radio charts, WIFL makes more slow but steady gains, climbing 21-18* on Top 40 Tracks and 20-17* on Top 40 Mainstream, while it moves up 29-26* on the typically slow-moving Adult Top 40 chart. On the Club Play chart, WIFL remains bulleted at #2, stuck behind Janet's "All For You" which spends a third week atop that chart. Hopefully WIFL will be able to reach the top next week, as Madonna faces tough competition from both Janet and the #3 track, Spiller's "Groovejet (If This Ain't Love)," which was a massive international hit last year. Hopefully WIFL does not become a repeat of "Human Nature," which peaked at #2 for three weeks on the Club Play chart in 1995. So overall this is a mixed week for WIFL. Minor gains across the board in airplay barely offset major sales losses. Additionally, Madonnarama now reports that a US regular single for WIFL has been outright canceled. While this is certainly bad news for the single (it has virtually no chance at hitting the top ten now), it is perhaps good news for the "Music" album, as WIFL has finally had an effect on the album's sales, perking up an additional 3,000 copies this week to reach 19,000 and climb 88-84* on the Billboard 200, the album's first bullet in months. My predictions were a bit off initially last week (Hot 100: #19, Airplay: #33, Sales of 15-20,000), but with the disappointing sales news my revised prediction was right on (which was also the case two weeks ago after seeing WIFL's DVD sales). Next week I'd expect either another sales loss to give WIFL sales between 7,000 and 10,000 copies. Meanwhile, airplay might climb to around #32. With this combination I see WIFL hitting #21 next week. I also want to revert back to my initial prediction for WIFL's peak at #17.
*amended guess after learning sales figures PEAK PREDICTION: #17 Special thanks to hotshotjanetfan from Dotmusic for much of the above info! 16 MAY 2001Early sales numbers for WIFL indicate that it has plummeted to a mere 11,000 copies sold in its second week. That is a very, very bad sign and far below what I had expected -- anyone who is saying that this sort of drop was "expected" is quite flatly wrong. A small drop would have been understandable, but freefalling 35% in its second week is a clear disappointment. The song will have to have very strong airplay growth in order to move up on the chart at all. Based on this information, I think WIFL will probably hold steady at #23 or perhaps even fall a few spots on next week's chart. It is quite possible that WIFL may never enter the top 20. On the semi-bright side, the "Music" album does inch up 88-84 with a slight sales increase to 19,000 copies sold. 15 MAY 2001Again, sorry for the delay, but I just got back from a great vacation in LA! Anyway, here's a "lite" wrap-up of last week's charts... WIFL makes another impressive move up the charts, flying 46-23* on the strength of the maxi-single release and continued airplay gains, three spots below my prediction of #20. My guess for the airplay position was nearly right on, as airplay climbs 56-41* (I guessed 40) but I overestimated sales rather significantly. The maxi and DVD combined sell 17,000 copies (13,500 maxis and 3,500 DVD's), 8,000 below my prediction, but still enough for sales to climb 15-9* into the top ten. Fans may be surprised to discover that this is the first time Madonna has had three top ten sales hits in a row since the Like A Prayer - Express Yourself - Cherish trifecta. WIFL also climbs to #1 on the maxi-single sales chart, meaning every single from "Music" has topped that chart. WIFL is also soon headed to the top of the Club Play chart, where WIFL moves 9-2* this week. On the other airplay charts, WIFL's biggest positional jump is its 35-29* climb on Adult Top 40, a format WIFL will likely do very well at. On the Top 40 charts, WIFL is largely static. Although bulleted on all charts, it only moves up one (21-20*) on Top 40 Mainstream and holds at #21 on Top 40 Tracks. As for next week, many belive WIFL's sales will fall, since that was the case with DTM. However, WIFL's single has been released very early in its chart run, and could possibly gain in sales numbers next week. I'm not sure either way what will happen, but whether WIFL gains or loses sales, I imagine it will be a small change. Expect sales of 15-20,000 next week. Airplay should continue to grow, possibly to around #33. I think with steady sales and moderate airplay growth, the song should move up to around #19 next week.
*amended guess after learning sales figures PEAK PREDICTION: 8 MAY 2001NOTE: I will be on vacation from May 9 to May 15 and thus will probably be unable to update the site during that week. Unfortunately this is the big week of the maxi-single debut. I apologize in advance! Full updates when I return! 8 MAY 2001WB has confirmed that the WIFL regular single is no longer scheduled for May 15 in the US. It's not clear if it has been delayed or flat-out canceled. Let's hope it's simply a delay... 7 MAY 2001WIFL is plummeting down the UK chart almost as fast as it is flying up the US chart. WIFL dives 19-30 in only its third week on the UK charts. This is easily one of Madonna's smallest hits in the UK. 5 MAY 2001Great news! Advance word says that WIFL will jump to #2 on the Club Play chart next week, meaning the song will very likely jump to #1 the week after. DTM was only at #5 in its 4th week, while "Music" was already at #1 by its fourth week. 4 MAY 2001 (SECOND UPDATE)Billboard explains the breakdown of WIFL's sales in this week's Hot 100 Spotlight. Of the 6,600 copies sold, only 400 were maxi-single "street date violations." That means that the DVD sold 6,200 copies in its first week, an all-time record for DVD single sales. The previous record was also held by Madonna, when "Music"'s DVD single sold 4,200 copies in its first week. Billboard also explains that yes, the DVD single does in fact count towards the maxi-singles chart, making WIFL's #2 debut make much more sense. On the Top Music Videos chart, WIFL debuts at #2, scoring the highest peak for a DVD single ever on that chart -- Madonna once again breaks her own record, as "Music" was the previous record-holder when it peaked at #3. 4 MAY 2001I don't know for sure yet, but I'm beginning to highly suspect that the DVD sales of WIFL counted on the maxi-singles chart. It simply seems unreasonable that WIFL could reach #2 based on street date violation sales. (For those who don't understand the term "street date violation" (SDV), I'll explain in more detail. Any CD is given a scheduled release date. For WIFL, the scheduled release date of the maxi-single was May 1. That means that all the first week sales would be applied to the same chart. However, sometimes stores sell CD's before the scheduled release date. For example, someone may have purchased the WIFL maxi-single on April 27. That sale would count for the previous week's chart, and is called a street date violation.) 3 MAY 2001WIFL rockets 27 spots this week (73-46*) on the strength of a solid sales debut (15* with 6,600 copies sold) and healthy airplay gain (70-56*). The sales debut of 6,600 is very strong especially considering that the single was only available on DVD this week. Note that a very significant portion of those 6,600 sales went to street date violation sales of the maxi-single, as WIFL manages to debut at #2 on the maxi-singles chart despite not officially being for sale until next week's chart! That's much higher than DTM's early debut of #20 and Music's street date violation debut of #10. Both those maxi-singles zoomed to #1 the next week. WIFL will almost undoubtedly do the same. Unfortunately, Madonna just misses out on the chance to have three top ten maxi-singles in the same week, as DTM falls 8-12, even though "Music" hangs on falling 7-10*. The airplay growth is slightly behind the pace of DTM, which moved 73-51* in its second week, but the fact that WIFL is so close to DTM's pace despite being a third single shows signs that it might be able to buck the trend of poorly performing third singles from Madonna albums (Bad Girl peaked at #36, Bedtime Story hit #42, Power of Goodbye hit #11 -- clearly the most successful of that bunch). However, we really need to see at least one more week of solid airplay growth before determining if WIFL is destined for success. On Top 40 Mainstream, WIFL moves 24-21*. DTM moved 27-19* in its second week on Top 40 mainstream, however DTM debuted a week late on that chart, so its hard to compare. "Music" moved 36-20* in its second week. On top 40 Tracks, WIFL jumps 40-29-21*, similar to DTM (26-26-19), although understandably well behind the mega-hit Music (16-13-10). WIFL debuts at #35 on Adult Top 40 -- an especially strong feat considering that both DTM and Music did not debut on that chart until their third week on the Hot 100. WIFL will probably see its greatest airplay success on Adult Top 40, where it may surpass DTM's #4 peak. On Club Play, WIFL takes a giant leap 38-25-9*, meaning that its overall trajectory has thus far been very similar to DTM (38-21-9) for its first three weeks. However, my instincts tell me WIFL will reach the summit of the Club Play chart faster than DTM, which took seven weeks. WIFL has a good chance of spending multiple weeks at #1 on that chart. My initial prediction of #56 for this week's chart was incorrect, although my amended prediction of #46 (after learning the sales figures) turned out to be exactly accurate. However, #56 did end up being WIFL's airplay position. Next week is another tough one to predict, as its hard to tell how many copies of the maxi-single WIFL will sell. The maxi is a better deal and better set of mixes than the one for DTM, however DTM was much more well known at the time of its release. Last time I predicted sales I under-estimated (I said 5,000, it turned out to be 6,600), so this week I will guess 25,000 in sales of the maxi and DVD combined. (However, given the strong sales date violation sales of WIFL, the song could surprise and score significantly higher sales than DTM did. Music managed sales of over 60,000 copies when it was maxi-single only. That level of sales would send WIFL into the top ten next week!) An airplay jump of another 14 spots would be airplay at #40, while sales of 25,000 would probably land WIFL in the top 5 of singles sales. With that combination, I predict next week WIFL will charge into the top 20 at #20. Also note that there are rumors that the regular 2-track single for WIFL, originally slated for May 15, may have either been canceled or delayed. If no regular single is released, clearly that will hurt WIFL's chances on the charts. In that case, I'll upgrade my old prediction to a #14 peak for WIFL. If a 2-track single IS released, however, I will upgrade my prediction to a more optimstic #8 peak.
*amended guess after learning sales figures PEAK PREDICTION: 2 MAY 2001 (SECOND UPDATE)Okay, I cheated a little bit, but my amended guess for WIFL's Hot 100 position (I changed it from #56 to #46 after learning the sales numbers) turned out to be exactly correct! WIFL jumps 73-46 this week on the Hot 100. Based on this I would guess that airplay is probably in the 50s for WIFL this week (possibly 48 or 49, tho). Expect a more complete progress report on WIFL tomorrow. 2 MAY 2001WIFL makes a better than expected sales debut this week, landing at #15 on singles sales with 6,600 copies of WIFL sold. The majority of those sales are for the DVD (probably about 5,800-6,000) while the rest are for the maxi-single, which some stores sold before they were supposed to. Although WIFL's Hot 100 position is still dependent on airplay, I think it's likely that my Hot 100 prediction of #56 was too low. I'll move up my guess by ten notches to #46. We'll find out the actual position shortly. BTW, I believe these first week sales make WIFL the fastest selling DVD single ever. 1 MAY 2001WIFL plunges 7-19 on the UK singles chart this week. As monumental a fall as that may seem, it is actually not that abnormal. However, it is still a significant drop, and WIFL will certainly go down as one of Madonna's weaker hits in the UK. In the US, early chart info says that WIFL will leap 25-9* on the Club Play chart this week. The slow pace of the previous week's move (38-25, a smaller jump than most Madonna singles have initially) had me worried, but this 16-spot climb is certainly very, very promising, and it looks like WIFL might end up being another multi-week #1 for Madonna on that chart. (For those wondering how it's possible to know Club Play this early, you should know that the club play chart is actually calculated one week in advance, so occasionally this info slips out ahead of schedule.) 29 APR 2001Finally I have news on where WIFL stands on the other charts. On Club Play it jumps 38-25*. Note that this is behind pace of most of Madonna's recent club play singles. DTM struggled to hit the top of that chart, so WIFL may be in for a similar fate. On Top 40 Tracks it jumps 40-29*, a very strong move. Also, Music and DTM are at #7 and #8 respectively on the Maxi-Singles chart -- this is important because Madonna has a strong chance at having three singles in the top ten of the maxi-singles chart after it debuts. I don't know if this feat has been done before (possibly Destiny's Child?) but perhaps Billboard will comment on it if it occurs. 27 APR 2001Apparently one of Paul Oakenfold's remixes of WIFL will be featured on the soundtrack to the upcoming John Travolta film "Swordfish." Paul Oakenfold will do the whole album, which also will include his remix of Dido's "Thank You." No word on which mix of WIFL will be featured. 26 APR 2001WIFL makes its debut on the Hot 100 this week -- and just in time, as DTM falls off this week. This means Madonna has been on the Hot 100 in some form since August, when "Music" debuted. WIFL makes its debut on the Hot 100 at #73 -- a scant two places away from my prediction of #75. Airplay debuts at #70. On the Top 40 Mainstream chart, WIFL makes a more impressive debut at #24. For comparison, on its first two weeks on the Top 40 Mainstream chart, "Music" moved 36-20, while DTM did not hit Top 40 Mainstream until its second week on the Hot 100, when it debuted on T40M at #27. I don't yet know WIFL's positions on either Top 40 Tracks or Club Play (it debuted on both charts last week). It will be interesting to see if WIFL hits either the Rhythmic charts and/or the AC charts. It's Madonna's first song since 1998's Power of Goodbye that could fit the AC format. WIFL will definitely crack Adult Top 40, however that usually takes a few extra weeks since that chart has very slow turnover. Next week WIFL's Hot 100 position will be helped by sales of the DVD single. "Music" opened with sales of 4,200 copies for its DVD single -- WIFL's situation is slightly different. First, "Music" was a much more popular song/video at the time of its release. However, WIFL is a "banned" video, and its video has been a significant target in the press. This leads me to guess that the lower popularity yet higher controversy will balance out and the WIFL DVD's sales will be about the same as "Music"'s were. Also note that any maxi-single street date violations will affect next week's chart, so it's conceivable that WIFL could debut on the sales chart in the top 50 next week with around 5,000 copies (a high estimate, perhaps), boosting its climb up the Hot 100 somewhat. Here is a breakdown of where WIFL will be getting its points over the next few weeks: 5/12: Airplay, DVD sales, Maxi-single street date
violations As you can see, each week WIFL will gradually increase its opportunities for sales points. My prediction for the Hot 100 was quite close this week, so here are my next predictions (this is much more difficult, since the DVD sales are a bit of a wildcard): PREDICTION FOR May 12, 2001 HOT 100 CHART: #56 22 APR 2001WIFL enters the UK charts at #7 this week after a close race for the top 5. This is Madonna's first single to miss the top 5 since "Nothing Really Matters," but it should be noted that only two singles from "Ray of Light"and "Bedtime Stories" made the top 5, so the set from "Music" is roughly on par with Madonna's past work. Also, Madonnarama reports that, unlike the UK DVD release, the US DVD of WIFL will include only the video and no extra audio tracks. 20 APR 2001Correction -- the last Madonna song to chart on Bubbling Under was "American Pie" which spent a week at #10 before rocketing on to the Hot 100. Also I'm told that WIFLFAG debuted on Top 40 Tracks at #40 this week. And one more thing -- a few people have asked why I predict that WIFLFAG will "only" peak at #17 on the Hot 100. First, let me just say that I don't consider that to be a bad peak. But my reasoning is based on several factors. One -- the video controversy only hurt the song. The song has automatically lost any promotion from VH1 or MTV, which played a big role in promoting "Music" and "Don't Tell Me." Second, WB has been handling the radio roll-out poorly, and should have been pushing the song earlier. Third, although the single release dates are great for fans (and I'm very glad that they're releasing it sooner than they did with DTM), the singles are being released likely weeks before WIFLFAG's airplay peak. Since sales almost always debut strong and erode from there, it is likely that the sales and airplay peaks for WIFLFAG will not be well-aligned, meaning it's less likely that the song will peak high on the Hot 100. Fourth, sales with DTM were much weaker than expectations -- I see little reason to think that WIFLFAG's sales will be any stronger. And finally, there is the simple fact that later singles from albums tend to have a harder time performing well on the charts. That is not always the case, but it has been with Madonna and seems to be true especially today, where many albums are fueled almost entirely by only one or two singles. If those reasons aren't enough for you, then let me just resort to my own personal "vibe" on this track -- as "nice" a song as it is, I simply think that this is one song that could easily fly in under the radar of most radio programmers. It may be possible that WIFLFAG will go top ten, but I am inclined to think it won't. I would be quite shocked if it managed to hit the top 5, and am willing to bet money that it has almost no chance at #1. I am open to changing my prediction based on the next few week's performance, of course. I may sound pessimistic, but I would rather be pleasantly surprised by its peak than be disappointed. Wouldn't you? 19 APR 2001WIFLFAG has finally begun to chart on Billboard this week, debuting on the Hot 100 Bubbling Under chart at #11. It will almost definitely debut on the Hot 100 next week. The last Madonna single to start its climb on the Bubbling Under chart was "Beautiful Stranger" which entered at #16 on that chart. WIFLFAG also is the hot shot debut on the Club Play chart, where it enters at #38 -- the same position DTM debuted at five months ago. WIFLFAG is also starting to appear on non-Billboard charts such as FMQB, where it enters the top 40 there this week. So how do I think WIFLFAG will ultimately perform on the Hot 100? A few weeks into DTM's chart life, I correctly predicted that the track would peak at #4. I figure since I managed to have excellent crystal ball skills in that case, I would offer up a prediction each week on where I think WIFLFAG will peak and also what position it will be on the charts next week. PREDICTION FOR May 5, 2001 CHART: #75 11 APR 2001Apparently the US maxi-single has the following track listing, and it looks great: 1. Paul Oakenfold Perfecto Mix Having heard most of the remixes I can say this is a great bunch -- although I'm troubled that the "Paul Oakenfold Saturday Night Mix" is not listed -- perhaps this will be the B-side on the regular single? Then there is news of the DVD tracklisting (disappointing for those hoping that the DTM vid would be included!): 1. Video Also, it is possible that WIFLFAG may debut on this week's Hot 100 (or at least on a few Billboard charts) -- stay tuned to find out. Excellent news! What It Feels Like For A Girl is
confirmed for a DVD/maxi/regular single release! The
release dates are as follows: |
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