11 FEBRUARY 2003

As you've probably read elsewhere by now, "Die Another Day" did not receive an Oscar nomination for Best Original Song. Barring any unusual developments, that effectively means that my coverage of "Die Another Day" is over.

6 FEBRUARY 2003

The chart run of "Die Another Day" is officially over. The song spent 17 weeks on the Hot 100, peaking at #8. It also spent 14 weeks on the Club Play chart after spending two weeks at #1, and set Madonna's personal record on both sales charts, spending 11 weeks at #1 on Single Sales and 14 weeks (and counting) on Maxi-Single Sales, becoming only her second maxi-single to be the best selling maxi of the year (2000's "Music" was also #1). We will find out if "Die Another Day" earns Madonna her first ever Oscar nomination on Tuesday, February 11 (although two of her film songs were nominated and won Oscars, Dick Tracy's "Sooner or Later" and Evita's "You Must Love Me," Madonna wrote neither song and thus was not awarded).

31 JANUARY 2003

DAD manages a 17th week on the Hot 100, clinging on at #98. Meanwhile, the song completed its Club Play run after a lengthy 14 week chartspan, matching "Don't Tell Me," "Ray of Light," and "Justify My Love" as her second-longest running club hit since 1984, when the chart was 80 positions instead of today's 50. The post-84 longevity leader is "Bedtime Story" with 16 weeks.

24 JANUARY 2003

Is it just me, or is it time for some new Madonna music? Let's hope rumors of a March release for "American Life" prove true... Meanwhile, back in reality, "Die Another Day" hangs on for a 16th week on the Hot 100, sliding ten spots 83-93. Since its Hot 100 chart life is near its end, about the only thing left of interest to report is the lingering possibility of an Oscar nomination -- but we won't find that out until nominations are announced February 11. Lately, I've been thinking it's less and less likely that DAD will be nominated.

19 JANUARY 2003

It's not a particularly big surprise, but Madonna lost the Golden Globe for Best Original Song tonight. The winner was U2's "The Hands That Built America" from "Gangs of New York." It is highly unlikely that Madonna could win an Oscar for "Die Another Day," but really I think all of us are hoping that she will at least get nominated, so we can see her perform it live on the show. Plus, it would be Madonna's first Oscar nomination in any category -- although she performed Oscar winners "Sooner or Later" and "You Must Love Me," she did not write either and thus did not get credit.

17 JANUARY 2003

Finally we have some exact sales figures for "Die Another Day" in the US. It appears my guesses have been fairly accurate, as "Die Another Day" has officially scanned 155,525 copies. Also, as guessed, it spends a 12th week atop the maxi-singles chart, breaking its tie with "Music." In other sales news, the "Music" album has officially scanned 2.86 million copies. Given that this figure does not include record club sales and shipments in stores, there is absolutely no doubt that the album should be certified triple platinum, and could be eligible in a few years for quadruple platinum as well.

And in a refreshing bit of news, Madonna will guest star on an episode of "Will & Grace" in May!

16 JANUARY 2003

"Die Another Day" finally relinquishes its hold at the top of the US singles sales chart after 11 weeks, surrending to Kid Rock's "Picture." Sales for DAD are probably around 150,000, and a final tally of roughly 175,000 seems likely. The song slows its dramatic tumble on the Hot 100 by sliding only 4 spots, 79-83, in its 15th week. The song is still likely topping the maxi-singles chart. Meanwhile, DAD falls 29-43 in the UK, completing DAD's run in the top 40 after ten weeks.

Also, various film awards shows are beginning to announce winners, the first being the little-known Golden Satellites. Madonna was nominated for Best Original Song with "Die Another Day," but lost to Badly Drawn Boy's "Something to Talk About," from the soundtrack for "About A Boy." It should be noted that the Golden Satellites rarely correlate with other major awards ceremonies, so this shouldn't be considered a sign of things to come, as Badly Drawn Boy isn't even nominated for the next major award show, the Golden Globes. The Globe winners will be announced this Sunday evening, and several entertainment news sources have reported that Madonna will attend and possibly present at the show.

9 JANUARY 2003 (10:30 PM)

According to Madonnarama, a source at Warner Bros. clarified that "Die Another Day" was not considered eligible for this year's Grammy awards as it was released after the eligibility deadline. Meanwhile, we are still a month away from the Oscar nominations announcement. My personal favorite Oscar site, www.oscarwatch.com, currently lists "Die Another Day" as the third most likely song to be nominated for an Oscar this year, behind U2 and Eminem (their predicted 4th and 5th slots: Paul Simon and Bryan Adams).

Also, in the sales department, we now know that "Die Another Day" has indeed remained the #1 selling single and maxi-single in the US for the 11th consecutive week. DAD is now a lock for surpassing "Music"'s 11-week run at the top of the maxi-singles chart to become Madonna's all-time most successful single on both sales charts (although, it's important to remember that its total sales will likely be less than 10% of Vogue's total, and DAD won't even make gold status). Some people are now asking what the longest running sales #1 is of all-time, and if DAD has a chance at surpassing it. I don't know for sure, but I'd guess that Elton John's "Candle in the Wind 1997" owns that title, but I don't know how long it spent at the top, although I'd guess it was for at least 16-20 weeks, if not longer.

9 JANUARY 2003

Another week, another big drop in the US for "Die Another Day." This week the song plummets 57-79 in its 14th week. A few Madonna singles have fallen hard only to end up spending several weeks at the very bottom of the chart, which could happen again here (DCFMA spent its final five weeks in the bottom 15 positions), but it's also quite possible that next week could be the song's final appearance on the Hot 100. Unfortuantely, sales info for the past two weeks is still unavailable. In the UK, DAD actually climbed 34-29 in its tenth week, the biggest climber in the entire top 40. Somewhat surprisingly, DAD has now established itself as one of Madonna's longest-running UK top 40 hits.

As a lot of you probably already know, Madonna received no Grammy nominations this year. It's still unclear whether or not "Die Another Day" was eligible -- I'm starting to think it may be considered part of the 2003 eligibility year, because it is slightly surprising that it did not even receive a Best Original Song from a Motion Picture nomination. It could certainly be a case where it just wasn't considered good enough, but looking at the nominees in that category, several of them were also nominated for Oscars last year, so perhaps "Die Another Day" will be in the running a year from now -- although by then Madonna's new material will probably have outshined DAD. On another Grammy note, I'm pleased to say that my predictions for the top nominees were right on target -- of the six artists mentioned below, five of them tied for the leading number of nominations with five, while the Dixie Chicks received four.

3 JANUARY 2003

"Die Another Day" drops 46-57 in the US in its 13th week in the chart. A final run of about 15-18 weeks seems likely. No word yet on sales info, but don't be surprised if DAD is still topping the sales charts. Meanwhile, DAD drops only two spots in the UK, sliding 32-34 in a week without any new entries in the top 40. This is DAD's 9th week in the top 40 -- see below for why that is significant. I think it has a 50/50 shot of remaining in the top 40 for a tenth week. Back in the US, it should be noted that DAD is still on the Club Play chart, sliding only 8-14 in its 11th week. "Don't Tell Me" was also at #14 in its 11th week, and managed 14 total weeks on the chart. DAD will end up with probably 13 or 14 weeks, which is still a stellar performance. Madonna singles rarely spend more than 12 weeks on Club Play.

As for awards ceremonies, the next major list of nominations is for the Grammy awards, and those will be revealed on Tuesday, January 7. It is not clear if "Die Another Day" is eligible for this year's awards -- the cutoff date for new music was September 30, 2002. The song was technically scheduled to be promoted to radio in early October, however several stations began airing the song early in the final 3-4 days of September. My hunch is that the song will be considered eligible (U2's "Beautiful Day" was in a similar position in 2000 and was considered eligible). The only categories DAD has a genuine shot at being nominated for are Best Dance Recording, Best Original Song from a Motion Picture, and an outside chance at Best Short Form Music Video. It is by no means a guarantee in any of those categories, so if Madonna receives no nominations this year, don't be too disappointed. Just for fun, I am betting that the leading nominees across all categories will be Eminem, Dixie Chicks, Norah Jones, Avril Lavigne, Sheryl Crow and Nelly.

27 DECEMBER 2002

"Die Another Day" leaves the US top 40 after a 10 week run there -- including 7 weeks in the top 20 and 4 in the top ten. Although the song slides 35-46, it does earn the Greatest Gainer / Sales award due to holiday purchases. I have lost track of weekly totals over the past few weeks, but I would guess sales are close to 130,000 or so in the US. The single also spends an amazing ninth week at the top of the sales and maxi-singles sales charts. It already is easily her record-holder for longest #1 in overall single sales, but it is now threatening to outdo "Music"'s 11-week run as her longest-running #1 maxi-single. I don't know for sure, but it is safe to assume airplay has dropped out of the top 75 this week, giving the single an 11 week run on the airplay chart. That's better than "American Pie" and "You Must Love Me" as far as soundtrack singles go, but it's also quite possibly her shortest airplay run for a Madonna top ten single. That depends on how long "Hanky Panky" and "Rescue Me" spent on the airplay chart, however, and I don't have that information. In the UK the single slides 24-32 for an 8th week in the top 40, which is quite good. If it manages a ninth week, which is highly possible, only "Music," "Beautiful Stranger" and "You'll See" will have spent longer in the top 40 over the past 12 years.

20 DECEMBER 2002

Despite having only one single released in 2002, Madonna is the top maxi-singles sales artist for the year and "Die Another Day" is the #1 maxi-single. Believe it or not, this is the first time since 1987 that Madonna has been the #1 Maxi-Singles artist -- she was also #1 in 1985. She was #2 in both 2001 and 2000, as well as in 1993, and has made the top ten almost every year she's made the chart. Her only other song to top the maxi-singles year-end chart was "Music" in 2000. GHV2 was also the #58 album of the year. Madonna's full year-end chart performance will be available within the next couple weeks.

19 DECEMBER 2002 (8:30 PM)

A little more chart info on "Die Another Day" -- it remains atop the single sales and maxi-single sales charts for an 8th week on each (!), while airplay has plummeted 27-37-64 over the past three weeks, thus explaining the large drop on the Hot 100. In terms of total weeks on the chart, DAD will probably compare closely to "Don't Cry For Me Argentina," which was also a maxi-single only release which peaked at #8, and it spent 16 weeks on the chart overall.

19 DECEMBER 2002

"Die Another Day" slides to #35 this week on the Hot 100, as its freefall has clearly begun, dropping a total of 19 places in the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the song is holding steadier in the UK, this week at #24. At this point "Die Another Day" is pretty much over as an active single, so my chart postings here will be few and far between, although I will probably continue to post a few updates here in regards to its awards show chances. "Die Another Day" has already been nominated for a Golden Globe and the lesser known Golden Satellites for best original song from a film. Remarkably, it is the only song nominated for both awards, although Eminem is nominated in both categories with different songs from "8 Mile." Perviously, the general consensus had been that DAD would not be nominated for an Oscar, however given these early mentions it seems increasingly possible that it could be considered Oscar material. The nominees in each category:

GOLDEN GLOBES:
BEST ORIGINAL SONG - MOTION PICTURE

“DIE ANOTHER DAY”- Die Another Day
Music by: Madonna, Mirwais Ahmadzai
Lyrics by: Madonna

“FATHER AND DAUGHTER”- The Wild Thornberrys Movie
Music & Lyrics by: Paul Simon

“THE HANDS THAT BUILT AMERICA” - Gangs of New York
Music & Lyrics by: U2

“HERE I AM”- Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron
Music by: Hans Zimmer
Lyrics by: Bryan Adams/Gretchen Peters

“LOSE YOURSELF”- 8 MILE
Music & Lyrics by: Eminem

GOLDEN SATELLITES:
Original Song
a. Love Is A Crime CHICAGO
b. Die Another Day DIE ANOTHER DAY
c. Work It Out GOLDMEMBER
d. Girl on the Roof VAN WYLDER
e. Something to Talk About ABOUT A BOY
f. 8 Mile 8 MILE

11 DECEMBER 2002

"Die Another Day" falls 16-21 on the Hot 100 this week, breaking my prediction streak (by quite a wide margin -- I guessed it would hold steady). Sales slide to 10,000, still enough for #1 on the sales chart, however. I will be away for awhile so pardon the abbreviated update. My wild guess for next week? #30.

8 DECEMBER 2002

"Die Another Day" ekes out a 6th week in the UK top 20 this week, sliding 16-20. It turns out that this single, which at first appeared to be headed for a quick demise after it managed only one week in the top ten at #3 (her lowest peaking lead-off track since 1996), has now managed to establish itself as a genuine UK hit with considerable stamina. With 6 weeks in the top 20, DAD matches "Don't Tell Me," "Music," and even "American Pie"'s runs in the top 20. Since "Vogue"'s ten-week run in the top 20, the only singles to spend more than six weeks in the upper reaches of the chart are "Beautiful Stranger," "Frozen," and "You'll See," each with seven.

5 DECEMBER 2002

I still don't have an official sales figure for "Die Another Day" this week, but it turns out that it probably experienced a much smaller sales climb than I suspected -- probably closer to my earlier prediction of 13,000 than the 15-20,000 I guessed yesterday. Turns out that Kelly Clarkson gained only 1,500 copies, and since she was the greatest gainer, DAD must have gained fewer copies than that (note that Clarkson was incorrectly awarded a bullet, and that has been fixed). DAD's total sales are probably around 105,000 now.

4 DECEMBER 2002

Showing strong stamina, "Die Another Day" slips only 2 spots to #16 on the Hot 100 this week, which for the third week in a row is exactly in line with my prediction. Airplay actually fell quite a bit, from 20 to 27, so I am guessing that sales probably increased more than I had predicted to balance it out. I wouldn't be surprised if sales climbed above 15,000 or even got closer to 20,000. And although the single remains at #1 on the sales chart and is bulleted, the greatest gainer in sales is actually Kelly Clarkson's "A Moment Like This," no doubt intended as a stocking stuffer for a few kids out there (amazingly the greatest gainer / sales award forces a bullet for Clarkson, despite the single falling 25-36, making it quite possibly the farthest a single has ever dropped while earning a bullet). Meanwhile, by spending a sixth week at #1 in sales, DAD is now the sole record holder for Madonna's longest running #1 sales single. Hopefully I will have a sales figure soon. Also, note this week that DAD is performing almost identically in the UK and US -- sales for both singles are just above 100,000 copies, and both are at #16 this week. Interesting...

On other charts, DAD loses the top spot on Club Play, slipping to #2, giving her another respectable 2-week run at #1. After peaking at #23 on Adult Top 40 last week, DAD slides to #27. That ties it with the peak for "You Must Love Me" on that chart, and is one spot above "What It Feels Like For A Girl"'s peak. Every other single since YMLM has hit the top 20 on Adult Top 40, except for "Ray of Light (#39), "The Power of Good-Bye" (#40), and "Nothing Really Matters," which did not make the chart. DAD also peaked at #22 on Rhythmic Top 40, a format Madonna has had less consistent success in, as her only top 10 on that chart since "Take A Bow" (#4) is "Music" (#9). However, this #22 placing is actually quite strong considering how far that radio format's sound has shifted, as the only non-hip-hop songs to chart are generally uptempo dance/pop tracks with an R&B edge. "You'll See" hit #21 back in 1996, but today it wouldn't even be considered for most rhythmic station's playlists.

Back on the Hot 100, DAD held relatively steady this week as Puddle of Mudd (19-14*), the Dixie Chicks (15-13), and Christina Aguilera (22-11*) jumped over her, while Nelly's "Dilemma" fell hard, 11-17. For the next few weeks, the Hot 100 will favor songs with commercial singles due to the holiday buying season, so DAD could hold on strong for awhile. There are a few songs next week which stand a strong shot of surpassing DAD, but they are actually all pretty far below and could have large gains next week and still be below DAD. Greatest airplay gainer B2K f/P.Diddy (45-22*) stands the best shot of jumping over DAD. Avril Lavigne is vaulting up the chart with "I'm With You" (63-35*), but I don't think it will jump over DAD. Other bulleted songs in the top 30 include Clipse (21-20*), John Mayer (24-23*), Toby Keith (30-24*), and Pink (40-30*). Honestly, none of them look likely to outpace DAD. In fact, I think that next week DAD will hold steady at #16, as B2K jumps over it and Cam'ron (9-15) will probably fall below.

1 DECEMBER 2002

Showing remarkable staying power in the UK, "Die Another Day" bucks the chart trend by actually climbing 18-16 this week, the only single in the entire top 40 to actually move up! That gives DAD five weeks in the top 20, with the strong possibility of a sixth. This newfound stamina is almost certainly due to the success of the Bond film, as well as perhaps increased press about the song in the UK, even though most of that press has been negative (both Elton John and Bond composer John Barry have claimed it's the worst Bond theme ever). Perhaps, as they say, there's no such thing as bad press! Also, I don't know why it's so difficult to get accurate UK sales, but I have been just making guesses thus far on my running tally. I have seen a few new figures slightly higher than what I was reporting, so I am going to guess that DAD's UK sales are now around 110,000 copies. Hopefully we can get a more solid figure sometime soon.

Meanwhile, Bond's stateside box office success is having no discernible effect on US airplay, as DAD continues to fall rather rapidly on the pop airplay chart. At this point I think my #16 guess for next week's chart position is too high, and DAD will probably land closer to #18-20.

27 NOVEMBER 2002

"Die Another Day" drops to #14 this week, falling from the top ten after a four week stay and matching exactly my chart prediction for the second week in a row (thus far, my predictions have been off by less than two spots on average). Amazingly, "Die Another Day" is now tied with "Justify My Love" for Madonna's longest running #1 on the sales chart at 5 weeks, as DAD slips only 11% to 12,000 copies this week. I had optimistically predicted a small sales boost based on the film's release, but this small decline follows a clear pattern as sales for the single level off. Over the past several weeks, sales have fallen, in order, 26% - 21% - 18% - 11%. Considering that the next week will include the first full week in theaters for the Bond film, as well as the unofficial start of the Christmas shopping season, I am going to guess that sales will level off completely this week and possibly climb a bit to around 13,000 copies. At the very worst, I doubt the single will drop any lower than 10,000 copies and next week will easily cross the 100,000 total mark. Based on the current sales pattern, I'd predict an end total of about 175,000 copies sold for this single, which could be slightly optimistic.

Although at this point I doubt anyone who follows the chart needs further proof of the decline in singles sales, it's worth pointing out that Madonna's highest-selling single, "Vogue," sold over 2 million copies (more than 10x DAD's likely total) -- yet managed to top the sales chart for only 3 weeks. Even as recently as 2000, the "Music" single managed to sell in one week close to what DAD will sell over its entire run. Still, DAD will outsell "What It Feels Like For A Girl," and sales of the DAD maxi-single will probably be higher than sales for the "Don't Tell Me" maxi-single.

This is also a good time to point out that this week's chart marks the official start of the 2003 chart year, which means that DAD spent only 7 weeks on the charts in 2002. That is only important in terms of the year-end charts, and although 4 of those 7 weeks were inside the top ten, it is possible that DAD may not even make the year end top 100 singles. This is a problem that plagued a couple other Madonna hits in recent years. In 2000, "Music" ended up as only the #17 single of the year, as it was still in the top ten when the chart year ended. Had the single had its full run during the 2000 chart year, it would have easily been among the top ten singles of the year, if not top five. In 1994 and 1995, "Secret" had its chart run split almost cleanly in half over the two years, and is the rare (perhaps only) case where the same Madonna single has been in the year-end top 100 for two years in a row, both times coming in near the bottom of the list. Had "Secret"'s chart span been entirely in one year, it could have been among the top 30 or even top 20 singles. Still, DAD will probably do well on both the sales and maxi-singles charts, perhaps even making the top ten on the latter based on sales of about 90,000, although it will probably be shut out or fare poorly on the Club Play chart, as "Impressive Instant" faced a similar fate last year despite being a 2-week #1. We will find out these positions in about a month.

Finally, I'll close with my prediction for next week. I am betting that the Dixie Chicks' "Landslide" (16-15*) will climb over DAD, as well as the greatest airplay gainer "Beautiful" by Christina Aguilera (39-22*). That would put DAD at #16. The next likely single to surpass DAD is Puddle of Mudd's "She Hates Me," but that moves only 20-19* this week and seems to have just about reached its peak, while the singles at 16-18 (Creed, Justin Timberlake, and Musiq) all are unbulleted, although they are all pretty much holding steady. I have an inkling that one or two of those tracks may end up above DAD next week, but I'll bank on steady sales and hopefully not too steep of an airplay drop keeping DAD from dropping any further than #16. Also, note that due to the Thanksgiving holiday, this will probably be my last update until Sunday at the earliest.

24 NOVEMBER 2002

"Die Another Day" holds at #18 this week in the UK, making it the only holdover single to not drop in the top 20, despite the fact that six singles debut above it. That's four weeks in the top 20, which isn't bad for the UK charts, which generally have incredibly rapid turnover. Coincidentally, it turns out that the #18 placing of DAD on the US airplay chart is indeed accurate, giving the song five weeks in the airplay top 20.

23 NOVEMBER 2002

Some good news -- "Die Another Day" will remain at #1 on the Club Play chart for a second week, matching "Impressive Instant" for Madonna's most successful club hit since "Music" (both DTM and WIFL spent only one week at #1, while the Megamix peaked at #5). It is actually still bulleted at #1, but considering the pileup of bulleted songs behind it, I doubt it will manage another week on top. Also, I have yet to confirm this week's airplay position, but I've heard that it lost its bullet and fell to #18. I'm kind of surprised, as I didn't think the airplay drop would take effect until next week's chart, but it was going to happen eventually anyway. Also, based on Friday's opening number, it looks as though the film "Die Another Day" is headed for an opening weekend of about $45-50 million, making it by the far the most successful opening for a Bond film in the US. Hopefully some of that audience will pick up the single or soundtrack afterward.

20 NOVEMBER 2002 (11:30 PM)

As predicted, "Die Another Day" holds at #10 on the Hot 100 unbulleted. It is actually quite lucky to do so -- right behind it are a pile-up of four bulleted singles, which could very well all surpass "Die Another Day" next week. It's almost definite that this will be the song's last week in the top ten. On the rest of the charts, Maverick artist Michelle Branch earns her first top five hit as her Santana Collaboration "Game of Love" climbs 7-5*. And although this is not related to Madonna at all, Christina Aguilera's "Beautiful" outperforms "Dirrty" in only its second week as "Beautiful" vaults 62-39* -- "Dirrty," criticized and satirized for its overtly sexual video clip, managed to peak at only #48, especially disappointing considering four of her first five singles hit #1.

I'm assuming airplay for "Die Another Day" is bulleted this week, although I don't know a position yet, but it is probably DAD's airplay peak. Assuming its peak is in the mid-teens (if it moves past 15 at all), then this will become Madonna's first single to break the top 20 of the airplay chart without then climbing to at least #11 or higher -- a weird distinction, but an interesting piece of chart trivia. As airplay likely falls next week, I am going out on a limb and predicting that sales may actually increase slightly due to the release of the film. My guess is sales will be around 15,000, however if I am wrong and the single is unaffected by the film and falls according to its current pattern, they would likely slide to around 11,000. Although that may keep the single's total chart points relatively stable if my sales prediction is correct, it won't result in a chart gain and it is pretty certain DAD will fall next week. I am going to guess that it will land at #14 -- I think that the singles currently bulleted at #11 to #14 will all jump over DAD, and possibly the Dixie Chicks' "Landslide" will outpace DAD as well, while hopefully Nelly's "Dilemma" will fall below DAD. If my prediction is off, I'd guess that I'd be going too low, but thus far most of my predictions have actually been too high.

20 NOVEMBER 2002

Right on target with my sales projection, "Die Another Day" sells 13,500 copies this week in the US -- a drop of only 18%, and enough to keep DAD at the top of the singles sales chart for a 4th week. Amazingly, it is now tied for second as Madonna's longest running #1 sales single, and it is looking increasingly likely that it can surpass "Justify My Love"'s 5 weeks to become a personal record. The sales total is now around 80,000 copies. Since sales dropped by only 3,000 copies this week, ariplay would need an increase of only 3 million audience impressions to offset DAD's total chart points. In other words, DAD could easily regain its bullet. However, it is still unlikely that it will climb the chart. This will also likely be the week of DAD's airplay peak, as airplay has slipped off its plateau and is starting to slide according to current daily reports.

Now is a good time to start looking at "Die Another Day"'s numerous achievements. In addition to its long run at the top of the sales chart, DAD has topped both maxi-single sales and club play -- a trifecta which she had only achieved three times prior to 2000 (million-plus sellers "Justify My Love," "Vogue" and "Like A Prayer" managed to do it, and the latter two managed to also top the Hot 100, Airplay, and the UK chart). Now "Music," "Don't Tell Me," and "Die Another Day" have accomplished this feat. "Die Another Day" has also reached #4 on the Top 40 Mainstream chart -- since "Take A Bow" in 1995, only "Music" has performed better on that chart, while "Don't Tell Me" and "Frozen" matched DAD's #4 peak. And despite early signs that Rhythmic radio would avoid DAD, the song managed a dramatic 8-spot climb last week to climb to #22. If it climbs into the top 20 this week, DAD will join "Music" (#9) as Madonna's only top 20 Rhythmic hit since "Frozen."

Madonna's Hot 100 position this week will probably be released late tonight, so cross your fingers for another week in the top ten!

17 NOVEMBER 2002

"Die Another Day" slides to #18 in the UK this week. I have not been able to find sales figures for the past two weeks in the UK so I am still just making random guesses about its sales total. If anyone can tell me where to find sales info, I'd appreciate it.

Meanwhile, in the US "Die Another Day" seems to have peaked in airplay spins, although audience impressions continue to rise very slowly. I'm not sure exactly what that means in terms of DAD's chances for sustained airplay, and although I do believe its airplay will be bulleted next week, it seems more and more likely that next week will be its airplay peak.

16 NOVEMBER 2002

In the "foregone conclusion" department we learn that "Die Another Day" will climb to #1 on the Club Play chart next week, becoming her 28th #1 Club Play hit! Since nearly every club single she releases hits the top spot, the only way to compare DAD to her other hits is in terms of number of weeks at the top and overall longevity. Its trajectory 33-20-7-2-1 put it at #1 in its fifth week, which is pretty much the average speed for Madonna singles to hit the top. Can it spend multiple weeks at #1? I certainly hope so, and my guess is for 2 weeks at #1, with a chart span of about 11 or 12 weeks total.

15 NOVEMBER 2002

Fleshing out this week's chart performance a bit more, "Die Another Day" managed to climb 19-15* on airplay, a positive sign, but as we already know, not enough to lift it up the main chart. I am beginning to suspect that the opening of the "Die Another Day" film may have more of an impact than I had previously guessed. This could be just wishful thinking, but soundtracks typically debut the week before a film is released and then spike up the following week once people have seen the film. Since the soundtrack for "Die Another Day" is little more than the score, I imagine that typical shoppers may end up picking the single instead after seeing the film. That won't affect the Hot 100 for another two weeks, but it could quite possibly result in a sales gain for DAD on the chart week dated 12/7 and/or 12/14. Of course, if airplay is dropping by then, it will be the reverse scenario of the past few weeks, and it probably won't result in a chart gain. However, keep in mind that "Don't Tell Me" was only at #21* in airplay in its sixth week, and it went on to hit the airplay top ten in its 11th week. "Music" also hit its highest airplay position in its eleventh week. Such longevity is less likely for DAD, but not impossible.

My intuition suggests that "Die Another Day" will have a similar rollercoaster ride to "You'll See." That song's chart pattern saw it climb to #6 in its second week, fall down to #12 by its fifth week, and then climb back up to #8 in its 8th week before beginning its permanent descent. Keep in mind, however, that's probably a best-case scenario for DAD, and it I still don't think it's likely that it will reach a new peak.

14 NOVEMBER 2002

So, "Die Another Day" has fallen in the US. It remains in the top ten for a third week at #10 unbulleted, matching fellow #8 "Don't Cry For Me Argentina"'s three week stint in the chart's upper echelon. My thoughts about either No Doubt or Cam'ron falling both turned out false, as Cam'ron held steady at #5 while No Doubt actually leaped 6-3*, thus giving the group its biggest Hot 100 hit ever with "Underneath It All" ("Don't Speak" was not eligible to chart, although it certainly was their biggest smash and probably always will be). I don't know DAD's airplay position, but I'm sure it's bulleted, and hopefully it managed to climb past its current #18 airplay peak. Note that airplay is still growing and it's fairly certain DAD will have at least one more bulleted week on the airplay chart. I may sound like a broken record, but if sales drop only slightly next week, then it is possible for DAD to have an overall gain in points. If sales follow their current pattern, expect them to drop to around 13,000 (although the drop may be even smaller, closer to 14,000). Whether or not that will translate into a climb on the Hot 100 is debatable -- it's possible that Nelly's "Dilemma" will fall below DAD next week (it fell 3-6 this week), however Jay-Z and Beyonce's "03 Bonnie & Clyde" is quickly scaling the chart, jumping 17-12* this week, meaning that it may pass DAD. The next bulleted song below Jay-Z is at #16, so I doubt that DAD will experience any sort of tumble next week. DAD could end up anywhere from #9 to #11, but my hunch is that DAD will remain at #10.

13 NOVEMBER 2002 (6:00 PM)

As expected by a few chart experts, "Die Another Day" slides to #10 this week in the US. Previously I had indicated it was possible for DAD to climb past its #8 position. I would say that is still a small possibility, but with this drop it seems fairly certain that #8 will be DAD's peak. I had predicted last week that DAD would maintain its #8 position, so I was 2 spots off. My early inclination is to think that DAD will maintain at #10 next week, but we'll have to wait and see of course. More of an update later.

13 NOVEMBER 2002

"Die Another Day" sold 16,500 copies in its third week in the US, bringing its total to around 67,000. That's still a relatively slender sales drop of only 21%, and remarkably close to my guess of 17,000. Airplay has also continued to gain, but probably not enough to offset the sales loss. Although last week Billboard granted DAD a bullet despite a drop in total points, this week it looks as though DAD will probably fall 8-10 and a bullet probably won't be awarded. At least the single maintains its perch as the #1 seller in the country. Note that if DAD maintains its position at the top of the singles sales chart for two more weeks, it will have the unlikely distinction for tying "Justify My Love" as Madonna's longest running sales #1 with 5 weeks at the top, despite the fact that DAD is actually one of Madonna's lowest selling singles and has very little chance of even being certified gold. As it stands, DAD is tied for fourth in that race with "Papa Don't Preach" and "Like A Prayer." Both "Music" and "Like A Virgin" spent four weeks at the top of the sales chart.

Speaking of gold, a few fans are probably wondering if DAD has a chance at being Madonna's 25th gold single. To answer, I give this comparison: "Don't Tell Me" is currently Madonna's lowest selling single to be certified gold with about 375,000 copies scanned, which is about nine times DTM's opening week total. DAD would have to sell in the vicinity of 330-350,000 copies for WB to attempt to get a gold certificate -- but that would be about 12x its opening week. There are certain factors that could lead DAD to such longevity -- it is a soundtrack single (from an album that is mostly score, no less), and fans are probably more likely to buy the single than the score album. Also, DAD will still be a current single during the holiday rush in December, which could mean a few weeks of sales increases, and there's also the fact that there will be no new Madonna material until probably February or later. There is also the fact that the "Die Another Day" film has yet to even debut in theaters, and that could spur sales. I think it is probably unlikely that all of this will push DAD's sales to the gold level, but it should not be considered impossible. I am guessing that sales will total roughly 250,000, falling slightly short of "Don't Cry For Me Argentina," which was also a maxi-single only release and scanned around 290,000 copies.

12 NOVEMBER 2002

Two pieces of good news today. First, in a bizarre reporting error, "Die Another Day" did not debut at #11 in Australia but at #5, which is obviously a much rosier performance. Meanwhile, back in the US "Die Another Day" will vault 7-2* on next week's Club Play chart, making it fairly certain that the track will hit #1. In slightly less encouraging news, it appears that some of Madonna's close competition on the Hot 100 will surpass her, as chart expert Bradonna has calculated that J.Lo and Sean Paul, who were bulleted at 11* and 10* respectively last week, have gained enough to likely outpace "Die Another Day." That's despite another small airplay increase for DAD -- sales would actually need to increase in order to maintain her #8 position. Even in the quite possible scenario that DAD gains points overall, it still may fall to #10, perhaps with a bullet.

Also, I want to thank Brett for pointing out to me that several pages on this site were dead links -- they were incorrectly named and the problem has hopefully been fixed. Please don't hesitate to email me if you find any dead links on the site! Thank you, Brett!

10 NOVEMBER 2002

In its second week on the UK charts, "Die Another Day" tumbles down to #12. Large second-week drops are relatively common for Madonna singles in the UK, however it is quite rare for a lead-off Madonna track or soundtrack single to spend only one week in the top ten -- you have to go six years back to "Evita," when "You Must Love Me" fell 10-24. Meanwhile, in Australia "Die Another Day" debuts at a disappointing #11, making it her smallest hit since "Nothing Really Matters" hit #15. The Australian charts aren't quite as volatile as the UK charts, so it's possible that DAD could climb into the top ten, but by no means a guarantee. In other world news, DAD has hit #1 in both Italy and Spain, and is in the top ten in at least seven other countries.

7 NOVEMBER 2002

Not to rain on the parade, but Bradonna at Absolute Madonna has done the math and "Die Another Day" actually lost points this week -- airplay increased by 2.5 million audience impressions, which only offset about 1/3rd of the sales loss. However, it looks like Billboard used that editorial discretion and, perhaps believing the song would be bulleted next week with a smaller sales loss, allowed it to maintain its bullet. Unfortunately, airplay actually fell 18-19*, albeit still bulleted. A similar event occurred with "Don't Tell Me" as its airplay began to peak -- it fell twice with a bullet, moving 12*-13*-10*-12*. This news doesn't really change my outlook on the single's chances next week, although I should point out that Cam'ron's "Hey Ma" could possibly suffer a big drop in the next couple weeks, which could give DAD a little more breathing room in the top ten.

6 NOVEMBER 2002 (11:00 PM)

Remarkably, "Die Another Day" is actually bulleted this week on the Hot 100, which means that its airplay did in fact increase enough to offset the sales loss. Note that in certain cases, a song can be bulleted even if it has lost points -- for example, if overall the entire chart is down and most songs are falling, those with very minor falls may still be bulleted, while there is also a certain editorial factor on the part of those compiling the charts. This is very good news for the single and a likely sign that it will continue to grow next week. However, since top ten competition is very strong -- the next unbulleted song in the top ten is all the way up at #5, not to mention that J.Lo's new single has climbed to #11 and could possibly leapfrog DAD in the next few weeks -- it may be difficult for DAD to move up. The most likely case for DAD moving up is if No Doubt falls. "Underneath It All" is bulleted at #6 but it is already losing airplay at mainstream pop stations, and is rather close in points to DAD. In other news, DAD vaults 20-7* on Club Play, demonstrating the momentum it will need to top the chart. Expect it to hit #1 in two weeks.

I'm going to guess that sales will fall to around 17,000 next week, and airplay gains will hopefully make up for the sales loss, so I'll predict another bulleted week for DAD. I think DAD will either be at #7 or 8 next week, most likely #8 as No Doubt probably won't fall that quickly as its Adult Top 40 airplay is still increasing.

6 NOVEMBER 2002

Thanks to a lower than expected sales drop and decent airplay gains, "Die Another Day" remains at #8 on the Hot 100 this week. I don't have the complete top ten yet, but my guess is that Santana climbed over Madonna while Kelly Clarkson finally fell from the top 5 down to #9 or lower. Sales for the week were 21,000 copies, a moderate 26% drop. In order to maintain its total chart points, DAD would have had to increase its airplay by 7.5 million audience impressions. It's doubtful it climbed that much, but it at least climbed enough to fend off competitors and maintain its position -- likely unbulleted. This also allows for the possibility that DAD could climb a position or two in the coming weeks. If sales suffered a smaller drop next week, perhaps down to 17-18,000 or so, and airplay manages to stay strong, it's not impossible for DAD to move up and regain its bullet, although top 5 is still unlikely. Considering that promotion for the film "Die Another Day" is just stepping into high gear now, it seems like this single's story isn't quite over yet. Also, the song remains at #1 on Single Sales and Maxi-Single Sales this week.

Meanwhile, in the UK it looks like DAD will drop out of the top ten this week. Midweek figures put it at #11 with fewer than 5,000 copies sold on Monday. DAD could end up being one of Madonna's lowest-selling singles in the UK, as nearly all her singles there have sold at least 100,000 copies, a figure which DAD might barely cross.

Expect a more thorough update later tonight or tomorrow.

4 NOVEMBER 2002

It turns out that "Die Another Day" sold nearly half of its copies for the week on its first day on sale in the UK, as its debut week total is a relatively low 52,500. Madonna's past two soundtrack singles in the UK, "Beautiful Stranger" and "American Pie," both debuted with sales of more than double that, as did 2000's "Music." Considering that US sales also seemed to fall below expectations, it appears to me that "Die Another Day" has not connected with as many "casual" fans as most of Madonna's recent singles have.

Meanwhile, in the US airplay seems to be fluctuating in odd ways. Airplay still seems to be approaching a plateau, however now it seems that the "large market declines canceling out small market increses" trend may not be the case. Honestly this kind of stuff is not my expertise so I could be talking out of my ass, but in any case my gut says airplay will peak next week or the week after. We'll see how it goes. I still think #15 is a reasonable guess for next week's airplay position.

3 NOVEMBER 2002

As expected, "Die Another Day" debuts at #3 in the UK this week, with DJ Sammy's "Heaven" claiming #1 and Nelly and Kelly Rowland's "Dilemma" at #2. I don't have sales info yet, but I'll post it as soon as I know.

1 NOVEMBER 2002

Sorry for a bit of a delay in my "official" weekly wrap-up. By now chart followers know that "Die Another Day" has climbed to #8* on the Hot 100 in its fourth week. That is on the strength of #1* sales and #18* airplay (I haven't confirmed that airplay is bulleted, but I assume it is). My prediction was for #5 (which I later chickened out on and changed to just "top 5" -- either way I was wrong), which is 3 spots higher than DAD actually achieved. If we assume that this is DAD's peak position (which is not a guarantee, although I think it likely), then what does that mean? How does that fit into Madonna's singles history? Well, DAD has outperformed her past two soundtrack singles, "Beautiful Stranger" (#19) and "American Pie" (#29) -- although its current airplay peak is behind "Beautiful Stranger"'s #11 airplay peak. Since Madonna's 1998 resurgence, it is her fifth top ten hit (out of ten singles released), and it matches the peaks of 1997's "Don't Cry For Me Argentina" and 1990's "Keep It Together." It is her ninth #1 on single sales, and only her third single to hit the Hot 100 top ten without making the airplay top ten (the others being "Ray of Light" and "Hanky Panky"). And, of course, it is her 35th top ten overall, putting her hot on the heels of Elvis Presley for the record for most top ten singles by any artist (depending on how you count double-sided singles, Elvis has either 36 or 38 top ten hits). Overall, I would say that this is an excellent performance from "Die Another Day," particularly considering the song itself -- although it is similar to "Music," it has a much more philosophical tone and a production style that is well outside what normally succeeds in the mainstream.

The question is now, what next? In my opinion, the single will fall next week, probably to #9 or 10 (I will guess #9 on the slightly optimistic side). Although actual airplay spins continue to rise for the song, actual audience impressions are reaching a plateau. Why? Because radio stations in large cities, which jumped on the single first, are already decreasing their rotations for the song, even as DAD gains spins at smaller stations. A loss of as few as 5 spins on a large station can completely offset the gains of DAD being played at heavy rotation in a small town. I think airplay will still be bulleted next week, and may climb as high as #15. However, sales will almost definitely fall. The single scanned 28,562 copies last week -- it will probably fall below 20,000 copies this week. What that means is that DAD's total points will fall, and the song will lose its bullet on the Hot 100. In the unlikely event that the sales decrease is small (or even more unlikely, sales rise), DAD still has to contend with a very competitive top ten. Songs 6 through 9 are all bulleted, and Santana's "Game of Love" could easily climb over DAD even if DAD does have a small point gain. Does DAD stand a chance of reaching the top 5? I'd give it a 10% shot, so not really.

In other Maverick related news, Michelle Branch remains bulleted at #9* with her Santana collaboration "The Game of Love," although her "Goodbye To You" slides 25-28. Meanwhile, Oakenfold is on the verge of having his first top 40 hit as "Starry Eyed Surprise" leaps 54-41*. His album has also returned to the Billboard 200, vaulting 196-134* on a 49% sales gain. The total sales for his "Bunnka" album have reached 127,600 copies, and it now sits at #1 on the Electronic Albums chart.

Here's my forecast (and track record) for "Die Another Day."

30 OCTOBER 2002 (4:30 PM)

Once again Madonnarama delivers the news -- "Die Another Day" climbs to #8 on this week's Hot 100, making it Madonna's 35th top ten hit! Also, the song climbs 32-29* on Adult Top 40 this week.

30 OCTOBER 2002

According to Madonnarama, "Die Another Day" sold 28,562 copies in the US in its first week. Undoubtedly this will be a disappointment to many fans, who were hoping that "Die Another Day" had a chance at hitting #1. The Hot 100 position will be released later today, but "Die Another Day" does claim the top spot on Singles Sales and Maxi-Singles Sales this week, making this only the second time she has topped the Sales chart without topping the Hot 100 (the other single being "Don't Tell Me"). As for where the song will be on the Hot 100, it's almost certain it will make the top ten, however probably not the top 5. Based on these sales numbers I would guess that DAD will probably be around #7. For comparison, when "Don't Tell Me" hit #4, it had sales of 41,600 copies and airplay was at #12, and when "Music" hit #1 it had sales of over 150,000 copies and airplay at #6. "What It Feels Like For A Girl" climbed to #23 based on #9 sales (17,000) and only #41 airplay.

As the rest of this week's numbers roll in, some questions will include -- can DAD go any higher? How will the single sell over the next few weeks? Should DAD's sales be considered a disappointment? I will wait until I see some more info before attempting to answer them.

One more piece of news -- it appears that the initial one-day sales figures in the UK were incorrect. "Die Another Day" actually is in 3rd place with 24,543 copies sold, while Nelly is 2nd with 36,505 and DJ Sammy is in the lead with 50,187. Las Ketchip is behind Madonna with 18,676. Considering the relatively wide spread between positions, it is most likely that Madonna will remain at #3 for the full week.

28 OCTOBER 2002

Although there are a few conflicting reports, it appears that Madonna will come in 2nd this week on the UK pop charts. Based on day one sales, "Die Another Day" has sold 36,453, well behind the #1 single by DJ Sammy which sold 53,053. Nelly is in 3rd with 27,445 copies sold. Keep in mind these are only day one sales figures, however, if they are correct it's unlikely that Madonna could overtake DJ Sammy, but also hopefully she'll maintain her lead above Nelly and remain at #2. This is actually very strong sales for Madonna, and this performance is reminiscent of "Beautiful Stranger," which despite debuting at #2 is one of Madonna's best selling singles in the UK, and was held back due to unusually strong competition. Frustratingly, this will mean that Madonna will have ten #2 singles to match her ten #1 singles in the UK.

27 OCTOBER 2002 (7:00 PM)

I have a few smaller chart updates. For the week of 11/2, "Die Another Day" not only debuted at #47 on Single Sales (based solely on street-date violations), but debuted all the way up at #5 on Maxi-Singles Sales. Also, the song continued to gain at Top 40 Tracks (14-12*) and held steady, but bulleted, on Adul Top 40 (32-32*).

27 OCTOBER 2002

"Die Another Day" will climb 33-20* next week (the 11/9 chart) on Club Play. This is a bit of a smaller climb than most of Madonna's other club hits have experienced in their second week. For comparison:

Beautiful Stranger: 28-10-3-1-1 (11 weeks on the chart)
American Pie: 37-21-10-6-2-1 (11 weeks)
Music: 43-11-3-1-1-1-1-1 (13 weeks)
Don't Tell Me: 38-21-9-5-5-3-1 (14 weeks)
What It Feels Like For A Girl: 38-25-9-2-2-1 (11 weeks)
Impressive Instant 25-12-4-1-1 (12 weeks)

As you can see, DAD is well behind the pace of multi-week club smashes like Beautiful Stranger, Music, and Impressive Instant (which were all in the top 12 by their second week), but is slightly ahead of some of Madonna's slower-climbing #1 Club Play hits. I still think it will hit #1 in the clubs, but it may take 6 weeks as opposed to the more common 4-5 for Madonna's biggest club hits, and it may end up spending only one week at the top. Still, that's nothing to sneeze at.

Also, here's some news about DAD's chart chances in the UK. Madonna seems to be involved in a three-way race for #1 with new singles from Craig David and DJ Sammy, but Nelly and Kelly Rowland's "Dilemma" is also possible competition as it now remains #1 for a second week. As someone outside the UK, it's hard for me to gauge which direction I think the charts will go, but what I'm hearing from UK residents is that DAD may have to settle for #3.

25 OCTOBER 2002 (10:00 PM)

A little more news: "Die Another Day" debuted at #47 on Single Sales this week based on street-date violations. That is lower than I expected. I'm guessing that its total street date violations was under 1,000 copies, probably closer to 500. Note that sales of street date violations don't really seem to correlate well with determining how big the next week's sales will be. Also, I've heard that another Billboard article actually indicated the single would need to sell 62,000 copies next week, slightly different from the 60,000 figure given earlier.

25 OCTOBER 2002

We have more specific information now on how many copies "Die Another Day" needs to sell in order to hit #1. It's a bit lower than expected: around 60,000. Incidentally, this is the same number that "Don't Tell Me" would have needed in order to hit #1 -- it ended up selling around 41,000 instead and settled for #4. I am going to go out on a limb and say that this a very possible feat. "Music" sold around 62,500 its first week, and that was also as a maxi-single only. There are reasons why "Die Another Day" may sell less than that (it's perhaps a less liked song, it is being released at a time when the singles market is far smaller), but there are also reasons why "Die Another Day" may do just as well as "Music" or even better (the maxi-single includes a radio edit, there is no forthcoming 2-track single that fans may wait to buy, the song is from a soundtrack which means fans would be more likely to buy the single than the soundtrack). I can't really make a good guess at this point. There's also the fact that Warner Bros. is actually airing television commercials promoting the maxi-single (something I have never seen done before in the US -- music commercials almost always promote albums) -- that may be enough to push potential buyers into stores. No matter what, Warner Bros. has done an absolutely brilliant job promoting this single!

What all this means is that I am going to revise my prediction -- instead of saying #5, I'm just going to say "Top 5." I would not be surprised by Madonna landing at any position within the top 5 next week, including #1. If she does go to #1, this will be Madonna's 13th #1, tying her with Michael Jackson and also placing her only two spots behind Mariah Carey's female record of 15. Considering how poorly the other divas are doing -- Whitney Houston's latest single peaked in the 90s, Janet Jackson's duet with Beenie Man didn't break the top 20, and Mariah Carey has yet to even hit the Hot 100 with her new single -- Madonna may actually stand a chance at regaining the crown for most #1's by a female artist within the next few years. "Die Another Day" has already broken Madonna's tie with Aretha Franklin for most Top 40 singles be a female artist (Madonna has 44), while it will likely be Madonna's 35th top ten hit, firmly establishing her as second place for top ten hits by ANY artist, behind only Elvis Presley (who has either 36 or 38, depending on how you count his singles -- in either case Madonna will eventually surpass that number).

PEAK PREDICTION: TOP 5

23 OCTOBER 2002

"Die Another Day" vaults from #28 to #18 this week on the Hot 100, very closely mirroring "Music," which moved 41-23-18 in its first three weeks, while DAD has moved 41-28-18. I can't confirm airplay numbers yet, but what I've heard is that it's at #19 on airplay (note that last week's airplay info was incorrect -- it was actually #30, not #31). This week also includes a handful of sales of the maxi-single -- no numbers yet on exactly how many were scanned before the street date, but it's likely around 1,000. What this means is that DAD will have also debuted on Single Sales and Maxi-Single Sales this week. On Sales, it may have broken the top 20, and on Maxi-Single Sales it may even already be in the top ten (for reference, the 74-week old "What It Feels Like For A Girl" was #18 on the Maxi chart last week, likely selling only a couple hundred copies at most). It will almost definitely advance to #1 on both charts next week.

Next week is the big week for "Die Another Day" as its first full week of sales will kick in. I am standing by my prediction of about 40,000 copies being sold, which would likely land "Die Another Day" just inside the top 5. I'll stick to my guns and say it will hit #5 and that will be its peak, but I will admit that if I'm wrong, I will probably be underestimating. There's a strong possibility the song could go as high as #3, and an outside chance that it may hit #1. In terms of competition for the top spot, Nelly's "Dilemma" is STILL at #1, but Eminem's "Lose Yourself" is nipping on its heels leaping 6-2* and earning greatest airplay gainer honors. The Eminem track has been showing incredible growth at radio and has reached this high in only its fifth week on the chart. Both Eminem and Nelly should have around 125-130 million audience impressions next week (Eminem will probably surpass Nelly). "Die Another Day" will probably have just over 60 million audience impressions next week. Every 1,000 copies sold equals 1 million audience impressions, so 70,000 in sales could give Madonna just enough to nab #1 -- if she managed that, she would almost undoubtedly slide to #2 the next week as Eminem's airplay continues to spike while Madonna's sales will drop faster than any airplay gains can balance out.

By the way, to recap how other Maverick artists are doing, Michelle Branch has a mixed week -- "Goodbye to You" falls 21-25 and loses its bullet, meaning it just missed being her fourth top 20 hit. However, her Santana collaboration "The Game of Love" climbs 12-9*, making it her second top ten hit. Meanwhile, Oakenfold climbs 63-54* with "Starry Eyed Surprise."

Also, some older airplay info: in the 10/19 chart, DAD debuted at #24 on Top 40 Mainstream, and on the 10/26 chart, it climbed 19-14* on Top 40 Tracks and 40-32* on Adult Top 40.

PEAK PREDICTION: #5

21 OCTOBER 2002

"Die Another Day" will be the Hot Shot Debut on this week's Club Play chart (dated 11/02/02) at #33. The actual debut position isn't all that important, as Madonna's longest running Club Play #1, "Music," debuted at #43 before flying up the chart to #1 in its fourth week. "Die Another Day" could conceivably climb as high as the top ten next week on Club Play, although somewhere around #15 may be more likely. It will almost definitely hit #1 on that chart. On another note, "Die Another Day" is still increasing in airplay and, depending on the pop airplay chart you look at, has either just entered the pop top ten or is sitting right outside it. I can't confirm these calculations myself, but I have been reading from other sites that "Die Another Day" needs to sell approximately 75-80,000 copies next week and continue its airplay gains in order to have a chance at #1. That is not impossible -- but I doubt that sales that high will occur. It's more likely we'll see sales near 40,000, which should be enough to hit the top ten and possibly even the top five. A reminder that the single is in stores tomorrow, October 22!

17 OCTOBER 2002 (6:00 PM)

I have a few extra pieces of chart info for "Die Another Day"'s debut week (the 10/19 chart). The song debuted at #19 on Top 40 Tracks and at #40 on Adult Top 40. For comparison, "Music" debuted at #16 (16-13-10) on Top 40 Tracks, "Don't Tell Me" debuted at #36 (36-26-19), and "American Pie" debuted at #38 the week before it hit the Hot 100, then moved 38-22-20. On Adult Top 40, "Music" debuted at #36 (36-35-33), however that corresponded with its third week on the Hot 100. "Don't Tell Me" also entered in its third week at #34 (34-24-22), while "American Pie" debuted at #28 (28-24-23) the same week it hit the Hot 100.

So what does all of that stuff mean? It means that "Die Another Day" is taking off at Adult Radio faster than her recent hits (except, oddly, for "American Pie"), and is performing inbetween "American Pie" and "Music" on Top 40 Tracks, just as it is doing on the Hot 100.

17 OCTOBER 2002

As promised, here's a more thorough update on "Die Another Day." Since I started off last week discussing other Maverick artists, I think I'll make that a weekly trend since there are a few strong singles on the charts by Maverick folk. Michelle Branch continues to do very well, as her "Goodbye To You" climbs 27-21* and her Santana collaboration "The Game of Love" flies up from #21 to #12*, and will likely be her second top ten hit next week. I know it's early in her career, but I'm willing to bet she will outlast fellow young females Vanessa Carlton and Avril Lavigne as Branch seems to have the best combination of talent and maturity out of the three. Meanwhile, Oakenfold stays at #63 with "Starry Eyed Surprise," but is still bulleted.

Now back to Madonna. "Die Another Day" climbs to #28 on the strength of #31 airplay plus apparently a lot of points from small market radio stations, thus allowing it a higher Hot 100 position than its airplay would suggest. This is behind the pace of "Music," which climbed 41-23* in its second week, but is well ahead of "American Pie" as "Die Another Day" has already surpassed that song's peak of #29. AP moved 43-35-29 in its first three weeks. Looking at airplay, "Die Another Day" is much further behind "Music," as "Music" had to compete with a much stronger singles market. Its airplay moved 34-18 in its first two weeks. "Die Another Day" reportedly gained 26% over last week's airplay, and is still gaining. For the second straight week it has the most increased # of spins at pop stations, however that will probably change next week as momentum slows a bit for the song. Considering that there seem to be a lot of songs in the top 30 of the Hot 100 that are falling somewhat rapidly, that should give "Die Another Day" a little more room for growth even if its airplay doesn't continue increasing so rapidly. I am predicting that the song will just barely slide into the top 20 at #20 next week. Keep in mind that next week will also include sales of probably 1-2,000 copies of the single, giving the song a slight extra boost, as some stores will sell the single before its official release date. With a full week of sales the week after (I am still predicting will be in the neighborhood of 40,000 copies), the song will most likely have enough points to climb into the top ten. For comparison, "Music" moved 41-23-18-14-2-1, as sales affected the song in its fifth week.

"Die Another Day" will soon be charting on both Club Play, Maxi-Singles Sales, and Single Sales, and I think it's almost definite that it will hit #1 on all three of those charts, most likely for multiple weeks in each case.

As far as my prediction goes, I was off by two spots this week. I am going to stick with my #5 prediction for the single's ultimate peak, although I am concerned that may be a bit optimistic. It really all depends on how well the single sells. I think that airplay will almost definitely peak rather quickly, probably within the next 3 weeks or so, somewhere around the #20-15 range. I don't think this song is connecting with listeners the way "Music" or "Don't Tell Me" did, and will burn out quickly.

PEAK PREDICTION: #5

16 OCTOBER 2002 (11:30 PM)

"Die Another Day" climbed 13 spots to #28 on the Hot 100 this week, two spots below my prediction of #26. If airplay continues to grow at a strong pace it could easily break into the top 20 next week. A more thorough update will be online tomorrow.

16 OCTOBER 2002

No word yet on this week's Hot 100 position for "Die Another Day," but it seems we do know its airplay position. Apparently the song debuted at #42 on airplay last week and jumped to #31 this week (note that this is unconfirmed at the moment). How is it possible that last week its Hot 100 position was actually higher than its airplay position? Well, the Hot 100 also includes airplay from "small market" radio stations which are tracked differently than the other stations being used for the airplay chart. What this means is that if a song is doing very well in smaller radio markets, its total chart points can be higher than those of a song ranked higher on the actual airplay chart. It's sort of confusing, but this is one of the few chart rules that actually seems to favor pop songs over R&B/hip-hop, as there seem to be fewer R&B/hip-hop stations in smaller markets.

Since it's likely that airplay in smaller markets actually increased more than those in larger markets (as large markets jumped on the track immediately while smaller stations took some time), this could mean that "Die Another Day" could rank somewhere in the low 20s on this week's Hot 100. I don't think it will reach my earlier guess of #26, but will probably chart somewhere around #32-#28. We'll find out either later tonight or early tomorrow.

Meanwhile, on pop airplay alone "Die Another Day" has climbed to #13 according to one major radio chart.

10 OCTOBER 2002

I've been unable to find more complete chart info for "Die Another Day" this week, but I will give some more analysis on what we do know. The #41 debut turns out to be the highest debut of the year, beating out the likes of Eminem and Brandy. It was also a great week for Maverick artists in general, as Michelle Branch has two singles climbing, "Goodbye to You" is bulleted at #27 while her Santana collaboration "The Game of Love" (actually released on Arista Records) climbs to #21. Meanwhile, DJ Paul Oakenfold has made a successful transition to the pop world by dropping his first name and collaborating with various rappers and singers on his "Bunkka" album, and his album's first single "Starry Eyed Surprise" debuts at #63 this week.

But back to Madonna. "Die Another Day" is most similar to "Music" among Madonna's recent singles in many respects. Not only do the songs sound similar, but they are also being released as maxi-singles before they are available on any album, and have debuted at identical positions. I suspect that "Die Another Day" will not reach "Music"'s level of success, however, because it will not see a regular single release and is also, quite frankly, not quite as strong of a single as "Music." "Music" jumped 41-23 in its second week, and I believe "Die Another Day" will have a strong jump but not quite as big of a jump. My guess is it will climb 41-26.

Here's a breakdown of where "Die Another Day" will be getting its chart points over the next few weeks:

10/26/02: Airplay only
11/02/02: Airplay plus maxi-single street date violations (probably 1-2,000 copies)
11/09/02: Airplay plus first full week of maxi-singles

It's tough to guess how many copies of the single will be sold in its first week, but I am going to guess in the neighborhood of 40,000. It could be closer to 60,000, similar to "Music"'s first week, but considering the weaker state of single sales in the US I am guessing that sales will be a bit lower. "Die Another Day" would probably have to have at least top ten airplay that week in order to have a chance at #1. However, I'm going to stick with a peak guess of #5.

PEAK PREDICTION: #5

9 OCTOBER 2002

"Die Another Day" has had a triumphant debut on the Hot 100 at #41 earning Hot Shot Debut honors, five spots below my prediction of #36. This ties "Die Another Day" with "Music" as Madonna's highest debuting single since the Hot 100 began allowing airplay-only debuts. It should be noted that a high debut doesn't necessarily lead to a high peak -- "American Pie" debuted at a similar #43 but only climbed to #29 at its highest. I suspect "Die Another Day" will surpass that quite easily. I'll have a more thorough update tomorrow with more chart info and analysis.

8 OCTOBER 2002

There is a news report going around stating that "Die Another Day" is "expected to debut at #24 on the Billboard Singles Chart this week." This is possible, but frankly that sounds rather high and that number is more in line with its likely debut on Pop Airplay, not the overall Hot 100 or even Hot 100 Airplay. I have no idea if it's true, and I'm skeptical only because I've never heard of knowing Hot 100 positions as early as Monday night/early Tuesday morning (when the story began circulating).

Of course, if the song really does debut at #24, then consider it fantastic news, as that is one of the highest airplay-only debuts in chart history!

7 OCTOBER 2002

In case some of you weren't aware of this already, the video for "Die Another Day" will debut on a special half-hour "Making the Video" on MTV on Thursday, October 10 at 10pm.

According to one airplay tracking chart (Mediabase), "Die Another Day" has already reached the top 30 on the CHR/Pop chart (CHR = Contemporary Hit Radio). It seems fairly clear that at least for this week, airplay for "DAD" is increasing faster than for any other song. Based on this, I think it may debut higher on the Hot 100 than my initial guess of #45. It could feasibly debut somewhere in the 20s (which would be quite phenomenal), but I think it is more likely that it will be somewhere in the 30s, and I'll hazard a guess at #36. However, I should note that any debut in the top 50 should be considered a great start, so don't consider it a disappointment if it lands closer to my initial guess of #45.

NEW PREDICTION FOR 10/19/02 CHART: #36 (DEBUT)

6 OCTOBER 2002

"Die Another Day" has begun premiering on radio stations worldwide and most fans are finally getting a chance to hear some new Madonna material. Over the course of the single's run, this space will be updated with news mostly pertaining to the single's chart performance in the US and UK, although occasional chart news for other countries may be included. I will also post my weekly chart predictions. Based on only a couple days of airplay on a handful of stations, the song debuted on the Bubbling Under chart at #11, and will debut on the Hot 100 next week. In most countries it appears that the commercial single will be released at the end of October. Also, WB currently plans to release "Die Another Day" as a maxi-single in the US on October 22, which would be a fairly remarkable decision given the current singles climate in the US, and it would break Madonna's soundtrack trend, as neither "Beautiful Stranger" nor "American Pie" was released as a single stateside. What does this mean in terms of the charts? It's hard to say, but it will hopefully push the song into the top ten, and give it an outside chance of hitting #1 (I would say that's very unlikely however, especially considering she is competing against Kelly Clarkson, who has the benefit of high single sales and rapidly increasing airplay, making it one of the strongest #1 singles of the year). However, the single is currently scheduled to be released very soon after radio airplay began, so sales will affect the song in only its fourth chart week, meaning that airplay will likely still be increasing even as sales are decreasing.

In terms of early predictions, I can only make wild guesses at this point, but I am going to predict a top 3 peak in the UK (quite possibly #1 depending on the competition), and a probable top ten placing in the US if the maxi is released. Judging by many fans' reactions to the song, and the style of the song itself, I am guessing it will peak quickly and probably burn out a bit faster than Madonna's other recent big hits. Initial reaction on radio has been very positive, so I think it will do well, but probably not as well as "Music" or "Don't Tell Me." My current guesses:

PEAK WITH A MAXI-SINGLE: #5
PEAK WITHOUT A SINGLE: #14

PREDICTION FOR 10/19/02 CHART: #45 (DEBUT)